Land use evaluation in Itajaí river watershed and simulation for 2027

Abstract

Land use characteristics, forest regeneration stages and local economic practices – mainly agricultural – influence directly the quality and quantity of water within watersheds. The objective of this research is to evaluate land use changes in the Itajaí river watershed, which has an area of approximately 15 km², and represents one of the most importants watersheds in the state of Santa Catarina. Land use maps from the years 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015, obtained from the MapBiomas project, were evaluated in this research. After evaluating the land use changes in the watershed, a land use map for the year 2027 was simulated using the software TerrSet, former IDRISI. The results indicate an increase of 48,1% in the planted forest area, being the biggest responsible for the reduction of 13,2% in the natural forest area. It is estimated that, by 2027, only 55% of the watershed surface will be covered by natural forests. In 1990, this value was 67%.